Wednesday, July 4, 2012

The elections of July 14th 2012 will be won or lost in just three (Giant Killer) Local Government Areas, LGA, of Edo State. Namely, Oredo, Ikpoba-Okha and Egor. The remaining 15 LGA's na Jara. These three LGAs have the highest number of registered voters. The voters in these areas are well informed about the voting process. They are not likely to suffer from voter apathy. They will always come out on election day to vote. Finally, they are not moved by propaganda. Of the three leading candidates non of them will win any of these LGAs with a clear margin. The winning is going to be on single digit points differentials. From my computations barring rigging the ANPP will win in Ikpoba-Okha with a wide margin followed by ACN. In oredo ACN will win but with a very slim margin. In Egor the ANPP will also win with a slim margin. These votes will spur ANPP to victory. 

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